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Friday, October 07, 2011

Ontario Election 2011 – The aftermath

(En español más abajo)
 
CanadaI had two main thoughts by the time the first results began to be published last night:
  1. Will the Liberals keep the big majority they had in 2007?
  2. Will the NDP do well again and hence continue to grow or will Jack Layton's death prove that it was a one-man band?

The answer to the first question is a decisive 'no'. The Liberals didn't keep their majority government and they lost 17 seats compared to four years ago. It was funny to see some political analysts praise the Liberals and by extension its leader Dalton McGuinty, saying things like "voters appreciated that McGuinty had a plan". Newsflash: Liberals had 4.63% less votes than in 2007...

The answer to the second question is a 'very possible'. Sure, the NDP won some seats and had a strong presence in districts away from Toronto, but I was expecting even more. If we look at the Waterloo Region numbers, for example, they actually lost votes! I understand that they were competing against very well known and established candidates (Elizabeth Witmer won the Kitchener-Waterloo riding for the sixth time in a row, and even increased the number of votes), but the NDP candidates look very good, at least in the papers. Maybe the novelty is over and the electorate wants to see candidates with a known political background... There are too many celebrities and unknowns in my opinion.

I think the Conservative Party was the biggest winner. They gained territory in a province that has been traditionally red, and they have consolidated their position as the main opposition. Good job by Hudak and company (much to my chagrin). :-)

The biggest loser is without a doubt the Green Party. They lost a good part of their already weak support. If you add the likely demise of the Bloc Québecois to this, judging by the Federal Election results, it seems like Canada is on its way to be come a tri-partisan country. I like that idea, but for that to happen the NDP will have to keep pushing hard and grow more.

Last comment I have is about the turnout. Less than 50%. What a shame...



Argentina
Tenía dos cosas en la cabeza para cuando los primeros resultados comenzaron a saberse anoche:
  1. Conservarían los Liberales la amplia mayoría que tenían en 2007?
  2. Andaría bien el NDP y continuaría creciendo o acaso la muerte de Jack Layton probaría que este partido se sostenía más que nada en él?

La respuesta a la primera pregunta es definitivamente ‘no’. Los liberales no conservaron la mayoría y perdieron 17 escaños con respecto a hace cuatro años. Fue interesante ver cómo algunos analistas elogiaban a los Liberales y por extensión a su líder Dalton McGuinty, diciendo cosas como “los votantes apreciaron el hecho de que McGuinty tenía un plan”. Les tengo noticias, muchachos. los liberales tuvieron un 4.63% menos de votos con respecto a 2007!

La respuesta a la segunda pregunta es un ‘muy posible’. Seguro, el NDP ganó algunos asientos y tuvo presencia en varios distritos fuera de Toronto, pero yo esperaba aún más. Si nos fijamos en los números de la Región de Waterloo, por ejemplo, perdieron votos! Entiendo que compitieron contra candidatos muy conocidos y bien establecidos (Elizabeth Witmer, por caso, ganó el riding Kitchener-Waterloo por sexta vez consecutiva y hasta con más votos que la vez anterior), pero los candidatos del NDP lucían muy bien, al menos en los papeles. Tal vez se está pasando la novedad y el electorado quiere ver más candidatos con demostrable experiencia política. Hay demasiadas celebridades y desconocidos en mi opinión.

En mi opinión el Partido Conservador fue el gran ganador. Recuperaron territorio en una provincia que es tradicionalmente roja, y se consolidaron como la principal oposición. Muy buen trabajo de Hudak y compañía (aunque a mí mucho no me guste que digamos). :-)

El gran perdedor es sin dudas el Partido Verde. Perdieron gran parte de su ya pobre base de votantes. Si agregamos el muy probable fin del Bloc Québecois en un futuro próximo (a juzgar por los resultados de las últimas Elecciones Federales), parecería que Canada se encamina a ser un país tri-partidista. Me gusta la idea, pero para que eso se cristalice pienso que el NDP debe seguir empujando y continuar creciendo…

El último comentario que tengo es sobre la afluencia de votantes. Menos del 50%. Qué vergüenza…

Liberal Party of Canada
Leader:
Bob Rae (interim)

Conservative Party of Canada
Leader:
Stephen Harper

New Democratic Party of Canada
Leader:
Nycole Turmel (int)
Provincial Leader:
Dalton McGuinty

Seats in 2007:
70 (65.42%)
 
Seats in 2011:
57 (49.53%)

Growth:
-18.57%
Provincial Leader:
Tim Hudak

Number of seats:
25 (23.36
%)
 
Seats in 2011:
37 (34.58%)
 
Growth:
48.00%
Provincial Leader:
Andrea Horwath

Number of seats:
10 (9.35%)
 
Seats in 2011:
17 (15.89%)

Growth:
70.00%
     
Green Party of Canada
Leader:
Elizabeth May
Vacant
Other /
Independent
Provincial Leader:
Mike Schreiner

Seats in 2007:
0 (0.00%)
 
Seats in 2011:
0 (0.00%)
 
Growth:
0.00%

 
 
Seats in 2007:
2 (1.87%)
 
Seats in 2011:
0 (0.00%)



Seats in 2007:
0 (0.00%)
 
Seats in 2011:
0 (0.00%)
 
Growth:
0.00%

 
AROUND WATERLOO REGION
 
District 012 - Cambridge (map):

Rob Leone (Conservative)  15941 votes
Kathryn McGarry (Liberal)  13918 votes
Atinuke Bankole (NDP)  10414 votes
Jacques Malette (Green)    1056 votes
Allan Dettweiler (Libertarian) –     630 votes
Robert Ross (Independent) –     271 votes

District 027 - Guelph:

Liz Sandals (Liberal) – 19734 votes
Greg Schirk (Conservative) – 11950 votes
James Gordon (NDP) – 11148 votes
Steven Dyck (Green) –   3234 votes
Phil Bender (Libertarian) –     305 votes
Drew Garvie (Communist) –     139 votes
Julian Ichim (Independent) –     100 votes
 
District 037 - Kitchener Centre (map):
 
John Milloy (Liberal) – 15392 votes
Dave MacDonald (PC) – 15069 votes
Cameron Dearlove (NDP) –   7384 votes
Mark Vercouteren (Green) –     938 votes
Mark Corbiere (Independent) –     142 votes

District 038 - Kitchener–Conestoga (map):

Michael Harris (PC) – 18005 votes
Leeanna Pendergast (Liberal) – 14469 votes
Mark Cairns (NDP) –   7167 votes
Robert Rose (Green) –   1116 votes

 District 039 - Kitchener–Waterloo (map):

Elizabeth Witmer (PC) – 21356 votes
Eric Davis (Liberal) – 17837 votes
Isabel Cisterna (NDP) –   8259 votes
J.D. McGuire (Green) –   1307 votes
Peter Davis (Independent) –     316 votes
Melanie Motz (Freedom) –     124 votes
 
District 099 - Wellington–Halton Hills:

Ted Arnott (Conservative) – 23503 votes
Moya Johnson (Liberal) – 11326 votes
Dale Hamilton (NDP) –   6132 votes
Raymond Dartsch (Green) –   1309 votes
 
For other districts please click here
  
 
POLITICAL PARTIES

Conservative Party of Ontario = http://www.ontariopc.com
Green Party of Ontario = http://www.gpo.ca
New Democratic Party = http://www.ontariondp.on.ca
Ontario Liberal Party = http://www.ontarioliberal.com
Ontario Libertarian Party = http://www.libertarian.on.ca
 

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